Market highlights
- Four long-dormant bitcoin wallets moved 1,971 BTC worth roughly US$161 million.
- The Federal Reserve proposed GENIUS Act rules for stablecoin issuers.
- Digital asset investment products saw inflows of over US$3.3 billion in seven-day streak.
- Trump administration reportedly considering avenues to expand dollar-backed stablecoins.
- Canada's six largest banks developing a shared Canadian-dollar tokenised deposit network.
- Hackers stole US$387.5 million from Bitget after compromising its wallet infrastructure.
Macro market overview
U.S. markets advanced last week despite another sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields. Renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) outweighed concerns about borrowing costs and inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday around 5.18%, its highest closing level since 2007, while the 30-year yield climbed above 5.4%. Rate-sensitive sectors and smaller companies declined, but mega-cap technology stocks helped propel the Nasdaq higher.
The U.S. bond sell-off persisted despite further government intervention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expanded US$6 billion buyback of 20-to-30-year Treasuries for Thursday, triple the US$2 billion originally planned. However, the operation provided little lasting relief: the 10-year yield closed Thursday at 5.16%, while the 30-year yield reached around 5.46%, its highest level in more than two decades. Persistent inflation, elevated energy costs and concerns about government borrowing continued to weigh on longer-dated debt.
Middle East developments remained an important driver of energy markets. Oil initially fell as Saudi Arabia increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz and restarted its East-West pipeline, while hopes grew for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy around the UN General Assembly. Saudi crude flows through Hormuz have risen to around 2.9 million barrels per day, compared with approximately 700,000 barrels per day in August. As the new week began, President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil to US$100 per barrel.
Looking ahead, investors will continue to monitor Treasury yields, oil prices and developments in the Middle East, alongside signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates. CME Group's FedWatch tool currently puts the likelihood of a rate rise at the Fed's October 29 meeting at 70.9%. With the 10-year yield now firmly above 5%, markets will also be watching whether further Treasury intervention can stabilise longer-dated bonds and if elevated borrowing costs begin to weigh more broadly on equities. Also this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise the cash rate to 4.6%. In the U.S., the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index and September non-farm payrolls will provide an indication of the country's progress on inflation and state of the labour market.
Weekly performance: S&P 500 +1.2%, Dow Jones +0.3%, Nasdaq +2.1%.
Looking ahead:
- RBA rate decision - Tuesday, September 29
- U.S. core PCE index - Wednesday, September 30
- U.S. non-farm employment change - Friday, October 2
Crypto Market Performance
Market Cap: $2.87T (-2.3% 7D)
All crypto sectors saw gains, as sentiment remained relatively strong in the face of continued global macro uncertainty. AI led with a 13% gain, followed by utilities and services at 12.5%, while smart contract platform saw a rise of just 1.2%. The crypto fear and greed index declined slightly, though it is still in "greed" at 70.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Opened the week at US$85,701, climbed to a weekly high of US$87,158 on Wednesday, September 23 and declined into the remainder of the week, presumably on macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Bitcoin fell to a weekly low of US$82,630 on Monday, September 28 and is now trading around US$82,949 (-3.2% 7D).
- BTC dominance ranged between 58.9% and 59.8% this week.
- Bitcoin investment products saw inflows of US$2.4 billion.
Around US$15.6 billion in bitcoin options approached expiry on Friday, September 25, representing roughly 182,000 BTC. Calls substantially outnumbered puts, indicating bullish positioning, while max pain sat near US$76,000. Bitcoin traded around US$84,000-US$85,000 ahead of settlement, with traders watching for volatility as dealer hedges unwound or rolled forward.
Four long-dormant bitcoin wallets moved 1,971 BTC worth roughly US$161 million between September 6 and 22. The largest transferred 1,260 BTC untouched since 2016, while another moved 600 BTC dormant since 2012. Three wallets carried tags linked to a New York abandoned-property lawsuit involving dormant bitcoin addresses.
White-hat hackers moved 52.37 BTC linked to the US$130 million Coldcard exploit into an address labelled "Crypto Recovery Trust," potentially for returning funds to victims. The recovered bitcoin represents roughly 2.8% of the total theft, caused by a 2021 firmware flaw that generated vulnerable, predictable wallet seed phrases.
In bitcoin buying news:
- Strategy bought 1,665 bitcoin (US$143 million), bringing its holdings to 847,666 BTC (over US$70 billion) at an average purchase price of US$75,437 per bitcoin.
- Strive Asset Management bought 1,107 bitcoin (US$94.5 million), bringing its holdings to 27,462 BTC (US$2.3 billion).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Opened the week at US$2,740, reached a weekly high of US$2,780 on Wednesday, September 23, then dipped on Thursday and recovered into the weekend before falling to a weekly low of US$2,640 on Monday, September 28. Ethereum is now trading around US$2,656 (-3.1% 7D).
- Ethereum dominance ranged between 11.5% and 11.7% this week.
- Ethereum-focused funds saw inflows of US$690.5 million.
Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum's Hegota upgrade, planned for 2027, could be its last "normal" fork. Subsequent upgrades will increasingly use recursive STARKs, automated formal verification and quantum-safe cryptography. By 2030, Ethereum aims to process work more efficiently off-chain while improving scalability, privacy, security and independent verification.
In Ethereum buying news:
- BitMine bought 17,362 ETH (US$46 million). The company now holds over 6 million ETH, worth US$16.2 billion, or around 4.9% of supply.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Altcoins
The altcoin season index is currently 61, which is leaning toward altcoin season, though a broad-based rally across crypto is not present.
Cross-chain gains
- Quant gained 251.1%. The interoperability platform designed to connect different blockchains and TradFi networks gained after The Clearing House selected Quant to support its On-Chain Money Initiative. Quant will provide interoperability and transaction management for tokenised bank deposits, connecting institutions with existing RTP and CHIPS payment systems. The network is expected to launch in early 2027.
- LayerZero gained 28.6%. The cross-chain interoperability protocol's upward momentum continued on strong trading volume and whale buying. Interest in LayerZero's role in Circle's Arc cross-chain infrastructure, alongside positioning around a 26 million ZRO token unlock, also helped drive speculative demand.
Layer-1 moves
- Sei gained 28.2%. The layer-1 chain rallied on continued enthusiasm around Canary Capital's proposed Staked SEI ETF, which would stake roughly 90% of holdings, alongside anticipation of Sei's upcoming Giga upgrade targeting ultra-low-latency on-chain trading.
- Solana declined by 1.6%. This week, Solana Foundation hired former Binance global CMO Rachel Conlan as chief strategy officer and Polygon Labs' Jamal Raees to lead payments. The appointments strengthen Solana's institutional and payments push as the network surpasses US$5 trillion in 2026 stablecoin volume and continues upgrades to improve transaction speeds.
Ask the oracle
- Pyth Network gained 27.9%. The decentralised first-party oracle network gained on strong spot and derivatives activity. Perpetual open interest climbed more than 10% to US$57 million, while positive funding indicated bullish positioning. Staked Pyth recently reached a 2026 high of almost US$92.8 million, potentially reducing circulating supply, although closely balanced long and short liquidations signal continued market uncertainty.
Ethena x Binance
- Ethena gained 21%. The DeFi protocol on the Ethereum network gained on the network's Binance partnership, which expands USDe's basis-trading strategy into tokenised equities. Momentum was reinforced by whale accumulation and tokenomics changes ending USDe-linked ENA inflation, alongside a framework for revenue-funded ENA buybacks as USDe supply reaches specified thresholds.
Crypto ETF News
Digital asset investment products saw inflows of over US$3.3 billion this week as crypto sentiment remained resilient despite macro headwinds. The seven-day inflow streak has seen exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows turn net positive for the year to date.
In altcoins, XRP, Solana and HYPE saw inflows of US$75.6 million, US$188.1 million and US$9.3 million, respectively.
Grayscale filed to convert its Bitcoin Cash Trust into a spot ETF for a NYSE Arca listing.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Other crypto news
- The Federal Reserve proposed GENIUS Act rules for stablecoin issuers, requiring tokens to be fully backed by safe, liquid assets and introducing capital and risk-management standards. A second proposal creates an application process for Fed-supervised banks issuing stablecoins. Both proposals will undergo a 60-day public comment period.
- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission clarified that token buybacks do not automatically make a cryptocurrency a security once its underlying network is functional, because they do not constitute essential managerial efforts under the Howey test. However, buybacks marketed as generating returns before a network becomes functional could still trigger securities laws. The guidance is non-binding.
- The Trump administration is reportedly considering public-private ventures to expand dollar-backed stablecoins overseas, strengthening U.S. dollar dominance and Treasury demand. Stablecoin issuers already hold nearly US$200 billion in Treasury bills. The initiative could involve the Treasury, State Department and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation as rival digital-currency systems develop globally.
- California Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 2409, banning state public officials and employees from issuing meme coins. From January 2027, crypto platforms will also be prohibited from listing certain tokens linked to public officials. Authorities can pursue civil enforcement, injunctions and disgorgement of proceeds for violations.
- Canada's six largest banks, RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank, are developing a shared Canadian-dollar tokenised deposit network. Initially focused on interbank transfers, the system could enable instant, 24/7 and programmable settlement while retaining existing banking safeguards. No launch date has been announced.
- Hackers stole US$387.5 million from Bitget after compromising its wallet infrastructure and spoofing transaction data, with North Korean-linked attackers suspected. Circle and Tether subsequently froze about US$318,000 in stolen stablecoins, but most funds had already been converted into unfreezable ETH. Bitget's US$464 million protection fund will cover customer losses.
- U.S. prosecutors are seeking forfeiture of US$84.2 million tied to Capstone, a payments firm accused of operating as an unlicensed money transmitter while processing transfers for Tether. Most funds were held through Wells Fargo. Tether says it was unaware of the alleged misconduct and has minimal financial exposure.
- NYSE Group and Blockchain.com signed a preliminary agreement to offer tokenised U.S. stocks and ETFs through NYSE's planned 24/7 digital trading venue. The partnership would give Blockchain.com's 44 million users access to tokenised securities with instant on-chain settlement, subject to regulatory approval.
from Caleb & Brown Cryptocurrency Brokerage.
